Percentage of the region surface with potential permafrost melting

Indicator	[hectares/hectares tourism region]
Range	[-%]
Control for	SUPPLY: Changes in monetary flows (-)
Influence on vulnerability	The higher the percentage of the region surface with potential permafrost melting, the more the region is exposed because of the high costs of intervention or the abandon of the site (Kneisel, Rothenbuhler et al. 2007; Mühll, Noetzli et al. 2007; Larsen, Goldsmith et al. 2008)
Trend	Linear ↑
Data source	Personal calculation, starting from Frei (2004), Bader, Kunz et al. (2000),and using a DHM25. Data on possible/ probable permafrost distribution kindly delivered by the FOEN (2010).
Remarks	It is foreseen that, with an increase of 1-2°C, the lower limit of permafrost will shift 200-700 m upwards (Bader, Kunz et al. 2000). We consider here a shift of 600 m (in comparison to the year 2000 and a consequent warming of 1.75 °C up to 2050). The lower limit is set at 2400 m, even is permafrost appears in small areas already at 2036 m AMSL. In addition, permafrost melting could become a danger for mountain trails in summer (Braun 2009).
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