2.1.1.c Glaciers melting

Many studies (e.g. Maisch 1992; Paul, Maisch et al. 2007) predict an upward shift of the steady-state equilibrium line altitude (or ELA₀) for glaciers of 120 to 170 m for a 1°C temperature increase[1]. By 2050, glacier surface in Switzerland will probably decrease by 54-80% in relation to 1973, while its volume will decrease by 50-78% (Paul, Maisch et al. 2007).The retreat of the glaciers in the near future will tend to accelerate rather than continue in a linear fashion (Bader, Kunz et al. 2000). Glacier melting will impact tourism in different ways. On one hand, glacier retreat will alter the Alpine landscape and therefore will modify scenic beauty. A study by Scott et al. (2007)showed that if glaciers and Alpine tundra  disappear and occurrences of forest fires increase, more than 50% of visitors would visit the national park less or stop visiting at all (Perch-Nielsen 2008). It should, nonetheless, be kept in mind that new generations would not have necessarily have a memory of the previous state of the landscape. Glacier retreat will moreover affect soil stability (Haeberli and Beniston 1998) and create glaciers lakes[2]. Furthermore, as for snowpack reduction, it will modify water flow and availability. Finally, resorts offering ski, hiking, ice cave sightseeing, and tubing on glaciers will also be negatively affected. We consider here only the impact on scenic beauty.

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