2.1.1.b Snowpack reduction

In a mountainous region, an increase of 1°C implies - on average - an shift upwards of the snowline of 150 m (Haeberli and Beniston 1998). Assuming an average winter temperature increase of 1.8°C over 1990 levels (Frei 2004; OcCC/Proclim 2007), the lower snow line would rise 270 m by 2050. More precise and reliable regional prediction can hardly be made at the moment, especially considering the low predictability of rain- and snowfall in climate models[1]. With the increase in temperatures, the duration of snow cover and the number of days with snowfall will decrease at low altitude (Agrawala 2007; Beniston 2009).  It can be therefore foreseen that many low-altitude ski domains will be particularly affected since, by 2050, these resorts would not have enough snow to permit ski activity. On the other hand, high altitude locations, because of the higher level of precipitations, will enjoy more snowfall and will still benefit from the situation. As pointed out in an OECD report (Agrawala 2007) that analyzed the Alpine area of France, Switzerland, Italy, and Austria up to 2050, Switzerland will be less affected than neighboring countries. Changes in snow quantity and snow cover periods will affect tourism not only because of the changed availability of snow for skiing. They will also affect it indirectly, by modifying the ecosystems characteristics (changes in water flow modifying e.g. the vegetation) and the availability of water for other domains (Beniston 1994). We will however not consider these two latter aspects.

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